Watch Reserves, Not Rates

March 6, 2017
Next week’s Fed meeting (March 15th) is going to be major news one way or another. Most analysts lean our way and now think the Fed will raise short-term interest rates by a quarter percentage point (25 basis points). We laid out the case two weeks ago (Time for a Rate Hike). If the Fed does raise rates, it will be just the third rate hike in over a decade, but the second since December, signaling new urgency to normalize. 
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