S&P 500 3650, Dow 32,500

September 2, 2020

If you pay close attention to our stock market forecasts, the title of this piece will look familiar. At the end of 2019 we made the same exact forecast for the end of 2020 — the strangest year in our lifetimes, and it’s not even over. Compared to most analysts, this was a very bullish call. And then, when the market hit a pre-COVID19 peak of 3386 in mid-February, if anything we looked not bullish enough. Then the bottom fell out of both stocks and the economy, struck by a combination of COVID19 and overly-strict government shutdowns. The S&P 500 bottomed at 2237 on March 23, pricing in an 80% drop in corporate profits from the year before, making our call of 3650 look obsolete. About seven weeks later, on May 8…

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