S&P 4,200 – Dow 35,000

November 30, 2020

In December 2019, we made a year-end 2020 forecast of 3,650 for the S&P 500. With the index closing Friday at 3,638, that looks like a very good call. But we’d be fibbing if we didn’t admit to getting whipsawed by COVID-19. In the spring the S&P 500 fell as low as 2,237, pricing in a massive drop in corporate profits. We remained bullish but revised our year-end forecast down to 3,100. Then, in August, after analyzing data on COVID-19 and assessing the actual impact of shutdowns on growth and profits, we lifted our year-end S&P target for 2020 back to 3,650.

For next year, the fundamentals continue to suggest…

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