Market Commentary

Market-insights

At the close of business on Friday, the futures market in federal funds was putting the odds of a 25 basis point rate cut on Wednesday at 90%, which would place the federal funds rate in a range between 1.50 and 1.75%, the lowest it’s been since mid-2018… Click here to read more…

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Market-insights

The government doesn’t release its initial estimate on third quarter real GDP for another nine days, but at this point we have enough facts and figures to make an educated guess that it’ll come in at right around a 1.8% annual rate, maybe a little higher, maybe a little lower. Given that the economy grew […]

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Market-insights

Trade Clouds Parting

Trade disputes have been an ongoing soap opera since President Trump took office. From steel tariffs to trade skirmishes with China, Japan, Canada, Mexico, South Korea, and the European Union, among others, it’s been hard to keep track!… Click here to read more…

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Market-insights

In spite of all the fear-mongering about a recession, Friday’s employment report clearly showed we are not in an economic downturn. The best news in the report was that the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, the lowest most Americans have seen in their lifetimes… Click here to read more…

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Market-insights

Repo Turmoil

In Ronald Reagan’s famous A Time For Choosing speech in 1964, he said “…the more the plans fail, the more the planners plan.” We were reminded of this recently after pundits freaked out when the New York Federal Reserve injected reserves into the banking system to keep some short-term rates from rising… Click here to […]

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Market-insights

Never underestimate the ability of politicians to mess up a good thing. They’re certainly trying in Washington, D.C… Click here to read more…

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Market-insights

We’re All Keynesians Now

“We are all Keynesians now,” is a phrase that caught on in the late 1960s and early 1970s, variously attributed to Milton Friedman and President Richard Nixon… Click here to read more…

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Market-insights

Labor Days

Labor Day is probably the best time to take stock of the American worker and, for them, it’s rarely been better. The unemployment rate is near the lowest level since the 1960s, job growth remains robust, and wage growth is in a general accelerating trend. … Click here to read more…

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