Market Commentary

Market-insights

The Expansion Continues

What a year! As of the close on Friday, the S&P 500 was up 29.2% in 2019. At the end of 2018, we forecasted the S&P would hit 3100 this year. At the time, this was a very aggressive call. Then we doubled down at mid-year, lifting our forecast to 3250. At the end of […]

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Market-insights

The Bible story of the virgin birth is at the center of much of the holiday cheer this time of year. The book of Luke tells us that Mary and Joseph traveled to Bethlehem because Caesar Augustus decreed a census should be taken. Mary gave birth after arriving in Bethlehem and placed baby Jesus in […]

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Market-insights

S&P 3650, Dow 32500

A year ago, we projected the S&P 500 would hit 3100 at the end of 2019. In spite of the swoon in equities in the fourth quarter of last year, we didn’t see a recession coming and our model for estimating fair value for the stock market was screaming BUY…. Click here to read more…

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Market-insights

Good News is Good News

A year ago, conventional wisdom became convinced that a stock market correction was really the beginning of a “bear market,” and a sure sign that recession was on its way. Oops. Conventional wisdom was wrong again… Click here to read more…

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Market-insights

During the next couple of days you’re going to see lots of stories about the strength of consumer spending. Early reports say Black Friday on-line sales hit a record high, up 14% from a year ago, following a 17% increase on Thanksgiving Day itself. Black Friday sales at brick and mortar stores were up 4.2% […]

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Market-insights

Giving Thanks

What an incredible time to be alive! We stand just five weeks from the end of a decade that saw prosperity spread far and wide. Some don’t see it that way, as pouting pundits and rancorous politics skew our visions. But, if we simply step back from the day to day noise and take in […]

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Market-insights

Long Live the Bull Market

Last December, almost 12 months ago, we set our year-end 2019 target for the S&P 500 at 3,100. Many thought we were way too bullish, but our model for the stock market suggested 3,100 was well within reach. We believed the bull market had plenty of room to run. Now, with six weeks to go […]

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Market-insights

One of our favorite economic parables is the Fish Story, from Paul Zane Pilzer’s 1990 book, “Unlimited Wealth.” It is an excellent tool for thinking about wealth creation, inequality and redistribution… Click here to read more…

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Market-insights

Since the earliest days of the current economic expansion, there have been naysayers asserting the US was on the brink of another recession. Remember all the fear about another wave of home foreclosures, or a disaster in commercial real estate, or the Fiscal Cliff, or Greece potentially leaving the Eurozone, or German bank defaults, or […]

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