Market Commentary

Market-insights

Keeping Good State Policies

When it comes to attracting people, jobs, and businesses, some states are just better than others. While the total US population increased 6.5% from 2010 to 2020, it increased 17.1% in Utah, 16.3% in Texas, 16.3% in Idaho, 16.1% in Nevada, 15.8% in Arizona, and 15.3% in Florida. Meanwhile, state populations declined in West Virginia, […]

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Market-insights

We can’t possibly exhaust our thoughts on all these topics in one Monday Morning Outlook, but we thought we’d give it the old college try. This year, 2020, has been exceptionally interesting for investors. Not only have stocks soared to new highs and mortgage rates fallen to new lows, but Bitcoin, after languishing since 2017, […]

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Market-insights

The Bible story of the virgin birth is at the center of much of the holiday cheer this time of year. The book of Luke tells us that Mary and Joseph traveled to Bethlehem because Caesar Augustus decreed a census should be taken. Mary gave birth after arriving in Bethlehem and placed baby Jesus in […]

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Market-insights

Back room deals in Washington, DC always die and come back to life, over and over, again. And, even though a “COVID-shutdown rescue package” seems like a no brainer, it’s been caught up in politics for months.. Click here to read more…

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Market-insights

The COVID-19 Recession is the weirdest we’ve ever had. There is no way anyone could have forecast it. It did not happen because the Fed was too tight. It did not happen because of a trade war. It was self-inflicted, caused by COVID shutdowns. And, in spite of a V-shaped bounce off the bottom – […]

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Market-insights

S&P 4,200 – Dow 35,000

In December 2019, we made a year-end 2020 forecast of 3,650 for the S&P 500. With the index closing Friday at 3,638, that looks like a very good call. But we’d be fibbing if we didn’t admit to getting whipsawed by COVID-19. In the spring the S&P 500 fell as low as 2,237, pricing in […]

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Market-insights

Who’s in charge of fiscal policy? That’s the real issue behind the recent dispute between Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding the Treasury’s decision to end certain emergency lending facilities by December 31, 2020… Click here to read more…

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Market-insights

Give Thanks! The US economy continues to heal. Payrolls keep growing, unemployment claims – though still elevated – are shrinking, key measures of the manufacturing and service sectors remain well into positive territory, and, as this week should show, both retail sales and industrial production remain on an upward trajectory. Click here to read more…

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Market-insights

While the election is still not certified, and court battles will drag on, it appears that we can draw two firm conclusions from the 2020 election. First, the pollsters were horribly wrong again. Secondly, American voters do not want a radical shift in economic policy. While Vice President Biden declared victory based on statistical evidence […]

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