Market Commentary

Market-insights

Moderate Growth in Q4

Moderate Growth in Q4 Back in mid-November, the highly respected GDP forecasting model from the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank (also known as “GDP Now”), estimated that real GDP would only grow at a 0.3% annual rate in the fourth quarter, which, if accurate, would have been the slowest growth for any quarter since 2015. At […]

Read More
Market-insights

The Gift That Keeps Giving The US economy is not in an economic boom, but growth has been consistently faster than during the Plow Horse phase from mid-2009 through the end of 2016. Real GDP has grown at a 2.6% annual rate since the start of 2017 versus 2.2% beforehand. Click here to read more…

Read More
Market-insights

Blame the Overweight Jockey The longest economic recovery on record continues, with January being the 128th consecutive month of growth. The first seven years, from mid-2009 through 2016 saw average real GDP growth of 2.2%. Since the start of 2017, US real GDP growth accelerated, to an average annual growth rate of 2.6%, while the […]

Read More
Market-insights

The Expansion Continues

What a year! As of the close on Friday, the S&P 500 was up 29.2% in 2019. At the end of 2018, we forecasted the S&P would hit 3100 this year. At the time, this was a very aggressive call. Then we doubled down at mid-year, lifting our forecast to 3250. At the end of […]

Read More
Market-insights

The Bible story of the virgin birth is at the center of much of the holiday cheer this time of year. The book of Luke tells us that Mary and Joseph traveled to Bethlehem because Caesar Augustus decreed a census should be taken. Mary gave birth after arriving in Bethlehem and placed baby Jesus in […]

Read More
Market-insights

S&P 3650, Dow 32500

A year ago, we projected the S&P 500 would hit 3100 at the end of 2019. In spite of the swoon in equities in the fourth quarter of last year, we didn’t see a recession coming and our model for estimating fair value for the stock market was screaming BUY…. Click here to read more…

Read More
Market-insights

Good News is Good News

A year ago, conventional wisdom became convinced that a stock market correction was really the beginning of a “bear market,” and a sure sign that recession was on its way. Oops. Conventional wisdom was wrong again… Click here to read more…

Read More
Market-insights

During the next couple of days you’re going to see lots of stories about the strength of consumer spending. Early reports say Black Friday on-line sales hit a record high, up 14% from a year ago, following a 17% increase on Thanksgiving Day itself. Black Friday sales at brick and mortar stores were up 4.2% […]

Read More
Market-insights

Giving Thanks

What an incredible time to be alive! We stand just five weeks from the end of a decade that saw prosperity spread far and wide. Some don’t see it that way, as pouting pundits and rancorous politics skew our visions. But, if we simply step back from the day to day noise and take in […]

Read More