Market Commentary

Market-insights

Not since the 1960s and 70s has the United States experienced social upheaval like it is experiencing today. We have protests (both peaceful and otherwise), and a massively divided political landscape. On top of that, we have a virus that is spreading across the country, creating fear and an acceptance of economic shutdowns. Click here […]

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Market-insights

Not Locking Down

A resurgence of new Coronavirus cases around the country has created uncertainty for investors. Stock markets fell last week, not because of the virus, but because investors fear another round of economy-killing, government-mandated lockdowns. We don’t expect that to happen, but when the government is involved, risks are definitely higher… Click here to read more…

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Market-insights

Turning off the global economic light-switch, and then turning it partially back on, has sent shockwaves through economic data that, while anticipated, have been jaw-dropping in both directions… Click here to read more…

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Market-insights

The recession that started in March is the sharpest downturn since the Great Depression. As it turns out, it was also the shortest… Click here to read more…

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Market-insights

More Green Shoots

A full recovery from the COVID-19/Shutdown Crisis is going to take a long time. We don’t anticipate reaching a new peak for real GDP until the end of 2021; we don’t anticipate a 4% unemployment rate until 2024… Click here to read more…

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Market-insights

This year’s experiment with government-imposed lock-downs has been a fiasco. We should have been focused on sealing-off nursing homes and limiting mass indoor events, while the vast majority of businesses that were shutdown could have kept operating, with natural social distancing…. Click here to read more…

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Market-insights

The largest federal budget deficit since World War II came back in 2009, as slower growth and increased government spending during the subprime-mortgage financial panic pushed the deficit to 9.8% of GDP. This year’s budget deficit will, quite simply, blow that record out of the water… Click here to read more…

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Market-insights

S&P 3100, Dow 25750

In December 2018 with the S&P 500 at 2,500, we forecast it would hit 3,100 by the end of 2019 and then pushed our forecast to 3,250 as stocks soared. The S&P 500 rose 28.9% in 2019 and hit that revised target on the first day of trading in 2020… Click here to read more…

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Market-insights

When the employment report for April is released this Friday, the economic damage from the deepest of the Coronavirus shutdowns will become clear. We estimate that non-farm payrolls will be down roughly 22 million versus March, and the unemployment rate will skyrocket to around 17.0%, the highest reading since at least 1948… Click here to […]

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