Market Commentary

Market-insights

Someone once said, “technology has never moved this fast, and at the same time, will never move this slow again.” So true! A partial list of recent technological advances includes: messenger RNA (mRNA) gene therapies, 5G wireless, blockchain, the cloud, low orbit communication satellites (Starlink), vertical indoor farming, and much more. At the same time, […]

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Market-insights

Strong Growth in Q2

Another quarter for consumers to rely on massive stimulus payments, extremely loose monetary policy, and the continued re-opening of the US economy combined to push real GDP up at a very rapid pace in the second quarter, with the federal government preparing to release its initial estimate of economic growth on July 29. At present, […]

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Market-insights

4,500…Or Higher

Many are convinced that a US stock market correction, or even a bear market, is inevitable. So, when the S&P 500 was down 1.6% last Thursday, many thought it had arrived. Then, the S&P 500 rebounded and hit a new all-time high on Friday. Being bearish on equities has not worked for a long time. […]

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Market-insights

Many analysts have been thinking and writing about the “twin deficits” and whether the record-breaking size of those two deficits, combined, mean the US dollar is about to plummet versus other currencies. Before we get into the weeds, a little background is necessary. When people talk about the twin deficits they are talking about the […]

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Market-insights

Is the United States’ job market tight? Well, that totally depends on your perspective. From a national perspective, it certainly isn’t tight. Total nonfarm payrolls were 144.9 million in May 2021, still down 7.6 million from February 2020, right before the COVID shutdowns. In addition, when asked, 9.3 million American workers say they are still […]

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Market-insights

Taper Tantrum Two

To drive home his commitment to easy monetary policy and low interest rates in mid-2020, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell declared the Fed was not even “thinking about thinking about raising rates.” The Fed meets again later this week and, very likely, is still not thinking about thinking about raising rates. But that’s only part […]

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Market-insights

We keep hearing people make comparisons between this recovery and those of the past as if it’s apples-to-apples. For example, comparing job growth today to job growth after the 2008-2009 Panic. All in an effort to make the case that government spending creates economic growth. But there is nothing normal about the current economy. The […]

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Market-insights

Inflation Revisionism

Talk about revisionist history! A recent tweetstorm from an opinion leader at the NY Times says that, looking back, he wonders what all the fuss was about inflation in the 1970s. It wasn’t “that high,” he says, and so the risk of returning to that kind of inflation should not be a serious concern today, […]

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Market-insights

A Question for the Fed

It’s not a surprise. Inflation is running hot. But, is it transitory and temporary, or is it real and here for the longer term. How hot will the Federal Reserve let it run, and for how long? When does transitory and cyclical become “secular” and “serious”? These are important questions and only the Fed has […]

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