Market Commentary

Market-insights

The largest federal budget deficit since World War II came back in 2009, as slower growth and increased government spending during the subprime-mortgage financial panic pushed the deficit to 9.8% of GDP. This year’s budget deficit will, quite simply, blow that record out of the water… Click here to read more…

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Market-insights

S&P 3100, Dow 25750

In December 2018 with the S&P 500 at 2,500, we forecast it would hit 3,100 by the end of 2019 and then pushed our forecast to 3,250 as stocks soared. The S&P 500 rose 28.9% in 2019 and hit that revised target on the first day of trading in 2020… Click here to read more…

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Market-insights

When the employment report for April is released this Friday, the economic damage from the deepest of the Coronavirus shutdowns will become clear. We estimate that non-farm payrolls will be down roughly 22 million versus March, and the unemployment rate will skyrocket to around 17.0%, the highest reading since at least 1948… Click here to […]

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Market-insights

Before the Coronavirus, the US economy was cruising for what looked like 3% annualized growth in real GDP in the first quarter. But the effects of both natural social distancing and government-mandated lock-downs crushed economic growth in March… Click here to read more…

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Market-insights

Normally, we’re not big fans of enhanced unemployment benefits. The current severe economic contraction brought about by the Coronavirus and the government-mandated shutdowns of businesses meant to stop the disease is a completely different animal from a normal recession. It’s not just that people are staying away from certain economic activities because of the virus: […]

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Market-insights

Job Destruction

Normally, we’re not big fans of enhanced unemployment benefits. The current severe economic contraction brought about by the Coronavirus and the government-mandated shutdowns of businesses meant to stop the disease is a completely different animal from a normal recession. It’s not just that people are staying away from certain economic activities because of the virus: […]

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Market-insights

The Coronavirus Threat

Total deaths in the US from COVID19 look like they’ll hit at least 3,000 by the end of March. A potentially brutal April lies ahead… Click here to read more…

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Market-insights

Due to fears about the Coronavirus – more specifically, the forceful government measures designed to halt its spread, the US is on the front edge of the sharpest decline in economic activity since the Great Depression… Click here to read more…

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