Market Commentary

Market-insights

One of the best economic debates that’s happening right now isn’t between Republicans and Democrats or liberals versus conservatives, it’s between policymakers who want to go full steam ahead with as much fiscal and monetary “stimulus” as possible and center-left economists who worry about the economic effects of over-stimulating the economy… Click here to read […]

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Market-insights

President Biden and Congress agreed to a roughly $2 trillion stimulus back in March and are now contemplating two new additional multi-trillion dollar pieces of legislation, on both infrastructure and social spending, as well as some massive tax hikes. Ultimately, though, it’s extremely important to keep in mind that the legislative process surrounding these bills […]

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Market-insights

The Sugar High Economy

Mix extremely loose monetary policy, a federal government cutting checks like it’s going out of style, and extensive roll-out of the COVID-19 vaccines, and what do you get? Answer: Some really strong economic data…. Click here to read more…

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Market-insights

The S&P 500 fell almost 50% between mid-February and mid-March 2020, during the initial stages of the pandemic. It bottomed at roughly 2,224 during the nationwide strategy of shutting down for “15 days to slow the spread.” Because this was not a normal recession, and the market went into the shutdown undervalued, we believed stock […]

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Market-insights

Housing Boom to Continue

Housing prices have soared in the past year. The national Case-Shiller index is up 11.2% in the past twelve months, the largest gain since 2005-06. The FHFA index is up 12.0% in the past twelve months, the largest on record (going back to 1991). Given these gains, some are wondering whether housing is back in […]

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Market-insights

Jobs Are Booming

When the scientists said “15 days to slow the spread,” some of us actually believed that by Easter the shutdowns would end. That was last year. Now, a full year, and $5 trillion in government spending later, we may finally be getting our wish. On Good Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the March […]

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Market-insights

Tax Hikes Are Coming

The federal budget deficit hit an all-time record high of $3.1 trillion last year. With the passage of the recent blowout “stimulus” bill, it’s set to be even higher in 2021. Now we watch and wait for a potential infrastructure bill, which could run as much as an extra $4 trillion over the next ten […]

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Market-insights

You’ve got to hand it to the Federal Reserve. With the cleverness of a seasoned head coach – think Jim Boeheim leading Syracuse in the NCAA basketball tournament – they figured out how to accomplish a great deal while making it look like they didn’t have many tools at their disposal. The market keeps expecting […]

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Market-insights

Inflation and The Fed

We believe inflation is still, and always will be, a monetary phenomenon. It is defined as “too much money chasing too few goods and services” – but that doesn’t mean every period of higher inflation is going to look exactly the same. Today’s case for higher inflation is easy to understand. The M2 measure of […]

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