Inflation and the Fed

September 22, 2020

As we near the end of the third quarter, key economic reports will be released that will influence our forecast for third quarter real Gross Domestic Product. It will be a very strong quarter. We expect a 25% “annualized” growth rate in Q3. Using just the data that have already come in so far, the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank’s GDP Now Model says 30%. Either would be a record quarter for the US economy, but still an incomplete rebound from the shutdown collapse in the first half of the year. This week industrial production, retail sales, housing starts, and a weekly report on unemployment insurance are on tap…

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