Market-insights

To reiterate, this Thursday morning we expect the government to report a huge, and virtually unprecedented, surge of a 33.4% annualized growth rate in real GDP growth for the third quarter. There are still a few monthly reports due this week that could affect our forecast, but only slightly… Click here to read more…

Read More
Market-insights

There is nothing normal about the 2020 recession. Massive nationwide shutdowns of “non-essential” businesses caused real GDP to drop at a 31.4% annual rate in the second quarter, the biggest drop since the 1930s. However, as we expected, a Vshaped recovery is being traced out…. Click here to read more…

Read More
Market-insights

Profits Poised for Growth

COVID lockdowns crushed the economy in the first half of 2020, with real GDP down 5.0% at an annual rate in the first quarter and 31.4% at annual rate in the second quarter, the latter of which was the steepest drop in real GDP for any quarter since the Great Depression in the 1930s. But […]

Read More
Market-insights

Over the past couple of decades, the Federal Reserve has coalesced around an idea about inflation that is little more than theoretical, with no real data to back it up. That “idea” is that 2% inflation is the “correct” amount of inflation. The target is not just a one-year target, it is seemingly a permanent, […]

Read More
Market-insights

With the presidential election just over a month away, prospects for another round of fiscal stimulus seem to be dwindling. The recent death of Justice Ginsburg and the rapidly approaching election have shifted the Senate’s gaze. Conventional wisdom is worried that a lack of additional stimulus, and the potential for a drawn out and contested […]

Read More
Market-insights

The Long Slog Recovery!

The second quarter of 2020 was the mother of all economic contractions. Real GDP shrank at a 31.7% annual rate, the largest drop for any quarter since the Great Depression. However, based on the economic reports we’ve seen so far, it looks like the third quarter will be the mother of all economic rebounds.… Click […]

Read More
Market-insights

Inflation and the Fed

As we near the end of the third quarter, key economic reports will be released that will influence our forecast for third quarter real Gross Domestic Product. It will be a very strong quarter. We expect a 25% “annualized” growth rate in Q3. Using just the data that have already come in so far, the […]

Read More
Market-insights

When government forces businesses to close (even if it is for a pandemic), it’s a “taking” in the legal sense. And we can think about $3 trillion in extra federal spending as “just compensation” to businesses and workers for that taking. Basically, we decided to borrow from future generations in an attempt to stop a […]

Read More
Market-insights

We communicate with friends, family, our worlds in information, and data. Our bodies are constantly processing information, from the things we touch to the things we hear— we are living processors. With business being a living organism, constantly changing and adapting, how could we expect it to be any different? Data is the blood that […]

Read More