Market-insights

Growth Continued in Q4

The double-dip recession so many feared didn’t arrive in the fourth quarter of 2020, and it certainly doesn’t look like it will happen in early 2021, either. It’s true that renewed shutdowns starting last November finally hit retail sales and employment, especially at restaurants and bars. But much of the economy, like manufacturing output and […]

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Market-insights

The seemingly endless election of 2020 is finally over, with Democrats winning both Senate seats in Georgia. As a result, President Biden will have slender majorities in the House and Senate. These slender majorities limit many dramatic policies, which require 60 votes, but tax policy is likely to change in some significant ways. Congress can […]

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Market-insights

When it comes to attracting people, jobs, and businesses, some states are just better than others. While the total US population increased 6.5% from 2010 to 2020, it increased 17.1% in Utah, 16.3% in Texas, 16.3% in Idaho, 16.1% in Nevada, 15.8% in Arizona, and 15.3% in Florida. Meanwhile, state populations declined in West Virginia, […]

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Market-insights

We can’t possibly exhaust our thoughts on all these topics in one Monday Morning Outlook, but we thought we’d give it the old college try. This year, 2020, has been exceptionally interesting for investors. Not only have stocks soared to new highs and mortgage rates fallen to new lows, but Bitcoin, after languishing since 2017, […]

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Market-insights

The Bible story of the virgin birth is at the center of much of the holiday cheer this time of year. The book of Luke tells us that Mary and Joseph traveled to Bethlehem because Caesar Augustus decreed a census should be taken. Mary gave birth after arriving in Bethlehem and placed baby Jesus in […]

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Market-insights

Back room deals in Washington, DC always die and come back to life, over and over, again. And, even though a “COVID-shutdown rescue package” seems like a no brainer, it’s been caught up in politics for months.. Click here to read more…

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Market-insights

The COVID-19 Recession is the weirdest we’ve ever had. There is no way anyone could have forecast it. It did not happen because the Fed was too tight. It did not happen because of a trade war. It was self-inflicted, caused by COVID shutdowns. And, in spite of a V-shaped bounce off the bottom – […]

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Market-insights

S&P 4,200 – Dow 35,000

In December 2019, we made a year-end 2020 forecast of 3,650 for the S&P 500. With the index closing Friday at 3,638, that looks like a very good call. But we’d be fibbing if we didn’t admit to getting whipsawed by COVID-19. In the spring the S&P 500 fell as low as 2,237, pricing in […]

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Market-insights

Who’s in charge of fiscal policy? That’s the real issue behind the recent dispute between Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding the Treasury’s decision to end certain emergency lending facilities by December 31, 2020… Click here to read more…

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